The NFL Playoff Picture after Week 6
The season is a third of the way done and teams are starting to separate themselves
Am I the only one who feels like more attention was paid this year than usual to the correlations between teams’ starting records and playoff appearances? It’s kind of a fun trivia bit, but it tends to tell you more about which teams aren’t making the playoffs than which ones are. After 6 games, though, even after some weird results, the picture of the league this year from top to bottom is starting to form. It doesn’t look entirely like what we might have expected, but there’s enough data that the priors don’t have to matter anymore. That being the case, it’s as good a time as any to take an initial look at the playoff picture: who’s on top, and what battles are shaping up amongst the next tier?
Division Leaders
If the season had ended after Monday’s games, the top 4 seeds from each conference would be the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers (AFC); and the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and San Francisco 49ers (NFC). Teams in italics are tied for their division lead but hold a tiebreaker advantage.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts (South, 5-1)
The Colts are the surprise team of the year. They’ve had the advantage of a pretty weak schedule, but they just keep winning, and as loath as I am to believe that a Daniel Jones-led team is for real, the standings are the standings. They will have to survive two games each against the tops of the NFC West and AFC West, as well as two games against divisional rival Jacksonville to maintain this spot, though.
Pittsburgh Steelers (North, 4-1)
The Steelers are one of two teams, the other being the Buccaneers, with a multi-game lead in their division. They have a pretty clear path to maintaining this lead, too — the Browns and Joe Burrow-less Bengals don’t appear to be threats, and 4-5 games is going to be a tough margin to make up even after the Baltimore Ravens get some players back from injury.
Los Angeles Chargers (West, 4-2)
The Chargers are in a good position as far as tiebreakers are concerned: they’ve already won three games in their division and are 4-0 in conference play. Their next four games include home games against the Steelers and Colts, which will give them more opportunity to stack relevant wins. With their starting and backup running backs injured for the time being, though, it’ll be a tough task to keep up their winning ways.
New England Patriots (East, 4-2)
After an uninspiring start to the season, the Patriots are red-hot and second-year quarterback Drake Maye looks like an MVP candidate. Two division wins, including the all-important road win against Buffalo, have them on top of the Bills for the moment, and they have the advantage of a fourth-place schedule that could very possibly keep them afloat.
Wild Card Picture
The Bills and Broncos are tiebreak losses away from leading their divisions, so they hold two of the three wild card spots in the conference. The third right now belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars, also at 4-2. They’re actually ahead of the Broncos thanks to superior records in-division and in-conference. The only other team in the AFC at or above .500 is the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been hot of late but are running third in a tough division, but other than their division games, they’re mostly through the tough games on the schedule. Well behind them at 1-5 are the Baltimore Ravens. We know how good Lamar Jackson and that team can be, but they’re going to be fighting an uphill battle after their bye this week. Also not out of the picture are the Houston Texans at 2-3.
NFC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (South, 5-1)
The Bucs have been the class of the NFC and arguably the league through six games. Baker Mayfield is the betting favorite for MVP and they keep being able to make one more play than their opponents. They do still have five games to play against their division, which gives teams like the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons more of a chance to catch them, and the rest of their schedule includes tough matchups with the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, and the AFC East.
Green Bay Packers (North, 3-1-1)
Gosh, I love when a tie is standings-relevant. The Packers’ 40-40 tie with the Cowboys puts them a half-game ahead of the 4-2 Detroit Lions. You usually only see half-games when teams haven’t played the same number of games, but here we are. The Packers already have a head-to-head win against the Lions, but this division will be tight throughout the season particularly given how many divisional matchups there are in the back third.
San Francisco 49ers (West, 4-2)
It’s tough to know the future of this team as key players keep falling to injury, but they’ve started the season strong and given themselves some cushion by winning 3 division games early. The rest of their schedule isn’t too bad, ranking 21st in the NFL by their remaining opponents’ record, but their division is as tight as always — just by wins and losses, they’re in a three-way tie with the Seahawks and Rams.
Philadelphia Eagles (East, 4-2)
The NFC East is a fast-evolving mess, but for now, the defending champs stay atop it. A loss to the Giants has put them in a less than perfect position in the division and conference, and with the NFL’s 11th-toughest schedule from here on out that includes games against the entire NFC North, the Chargers, and the Bills, their grip on this spot is far from ironclad. Still, the Eagles at their best have played the best football we’ve seen this season.
Wild Card Picture
I mentioned the Lions, Seahawks, and Rams above — those teams, all at 4-2, are a half-game or less out of the lead for their divisions and occupy the NFC’s wild card spots as of now. The competition for those spots is much deeper than in the AFC, however. The Atlanta Falcons, after a commanding win against the Bills, are just a half-game back at 3-2, as are the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings — though Minnesota’s 1-0 division record is a little nicer than the other two’s 0-2 start. Then we’ve got the Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders at 3-3. The Panthers have three games against the NFC West and two games against the Bucs in their schedule, which is fairly daunting, while the Commanders have a slightly easier road ahead.
Even the Dallas Cowboys at 2-3-1, despite the despondence of its fanbase after Sunday’s loss, are not out of the picture entirely; that’s only a game and a half back of both their division and the wildcard teams, with a pretty average remaining schedule.