Setting Expectations For Every Rookie Quarterback
There are breakout young quarterbacks every year, but what should the expectation be for Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough, and more?
The NFL offseason workouts are well underway - and with those workouts comes a ton of excitement - particularly from the young players drafted in April. There will always be lots of speculation about which players are going to outperform expectations - and that is never more present than at the quarterback position.
2025 was an underwhelming quarterback class from a talent evaluation standpoint. There was only one QB selected in the top-10, and the only non-Cam Ward quarterback taken in the first round was Jaxson Dart at No. 25 overall (the second pick that the Giants made that night).
That’s a far cry from the six quarterbacks selected in the top-15 of the 2024 draft class (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix). Still, there’s upside to be seen throughout the first three rounds - with five total quarterbacks being selected in those rounds. Today - those will be the players we’re setting expectations for.
And establishing that baseline for rookie quarterbacks can be a tough task (especially those not expected to start in year one) - most years we overestimate how impactful those types of players can be - and Cam Ward isn’t a generational-type of prospect that Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck were, when they came out of college.
Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns (Pick No. 94)
It was quite shocking on day two of the NFL draft when the Cleveland Browns took Dillon Gabriel with a third round selection - over the likes of Shedeur Sanders and Jalen Milroe.
I think it’s largely fair to say that the Browns took Gabriel at least a round before he was expected to go (this was a player that we didn’t even consider for the Two-Point Conversion’s Top-100 Big Board).
Gabriel enters 2025 in one of the most awkward quarterback rooms in recent memory - the Browns also have Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and fellow rookie 5th round pick Shedeur Sanders on the roster.
Now, coming out of college, Gabriel wasn’t heralded as this physically-gifted freak of nature with immense upside. He was always projected more as a backup quarterback with a steady arm that can run an offense in a pinch, or a few games, if ever needed to.
His tape at Oregon this past year wasn’t overly exciting, and he doesn’t play with the anticipation needed for someone of his stature. At 24 years old, it’s unlikely that Gabriel gets much better in the pros - though we’ve seen older prospects see success in recent years.
Expectation: 5 starts: 6 TD, 5 INT, 900 Passing Yards
I don’t expect Gabriel to come in and set the world on fire - and he certainly doesn’t prevent the Browns from selecting a quarterback in next year’s draft class, should the team be in a position to do so. But I do think it’s fair to expect Gabriel to start at least five games this season, considering the level of investment in him by the Browns, as compared to the other quarterbacks on the roster.
Jalen Milroe, Seattle Seahawks (Pick No. 92)
Man, oh man, do I love the fit of Jalen Milroe on the Seahawks. While it’s unlikely that Milroe is ready as a capable NFL starting quarterback in 2025 - I think his upside (particularly as a runner) warranted Milroe going much higher than where he ended up getting picked.
The physical tools are just off the charts - and I think that offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could be creative in how Milroe is utilized early on (this is a coach that heavily featured Taysom Hill last season).
Other than that, I wonder if Milroe actually sees an opportunity to start next season. Seattle paid Sam Darnold a 3-year, $100M contract this offseason - and it’s a deal the team could get out of relatively easily if things go south - but Darnold has proven to be a capable starter in a Shanahan-type offense (which is what Kubiak will run).
That said, even if Milroe does see the opportunity, he was drafted with the likely intention of letting him develop - and while I do think he will see the field some, I’m just not sure it will be much more than a gadget player in 2025.
If he does get a few starts under his belt, then I’d expect the offense to lean heavily into the running game - similar to how the 2022/23 Chicago Bears offense functioned under Justin Fields.
Expectation: 2 starts, 6 TD, 3 TOV, 600 total scrimmage yards
I think Milroe will see 5-10 snaps per game this season, even if he’s not playing the quarterback position. Milroe is arguably one of the best red zone weapons in the NFL before playing a single NFL snap - and should help this Seattle team get into the end zone a few times this season. In his starts, the passing game will probably be a work in progress, but as mentioned, I think the running game still gives the offense a surprisingly-high floor.
Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (Pick No. 40)
The New Orleans Saints, along with the aforementioned Browns, have quite the quarterback situation. Currently, this room consists of Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener.
That’s not exactly a promising group of players, which is why Shough will be leaned on early as this team’s starter - and for good reason.
Shough played really well this past year at Louisville - he was accurate and reliable in quick game, while showcasing an arm that most college quarterbacks don’t have. Despite his older age (he will turn 26 this year), Shough played himself into being a second-round pick - and lands in the best possible spot for where he currently is as a player.
With relatively little stopping Shough from being the day one starter in New Orleans, he should have the opportunity to play himself into being the franchise quarterback for the Saints. It’s a tall order - particularly with the offensive talent on this team not being what it has been over the past decade - but there is at least an opportunity here.
I’ll admit - I’m not the highest on Shough. I think a lot of the downfield passing was really rough last year at Louisville, and that he was heavily affected by any amount of pressure he saw. But I understand the bet of taking him in the second round - I think he should be a functional quarterback, capable of running a heavily quick-game offense that schemes easy reads.
Expectation: 13 starts, 16 TD, 10 INT, 2500 passing yards
Ultimately, I think Shough will do enough to start the majority of the season for New Orleans, but not enough to prevent the Saints from taking a quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft, should they elect to do so. He, to me, fits into the Davis Mills mold as someone the Saints can trust to at least function for a season or two in an offense, but isn’t good enough to be considered “the franchise”.
Jaxson Dart, New York Giants (Pick No. 25)
Jaxson Dart is one of the more interesting quarterback prospects in recent memory - he’s physically gifted, capable of being a runner with the ball, and played in a high-flying offense designed to get the ball downfield in a hurry.
And landing on the Giants? Well, it’s not the worst situation in the world. In free agency, the team signed two veteran quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston - meaning there’s no expectation to start right away for Dart. There’s a few decent weapons (headlined by Malik Nabers) - but I really do worry about the fragility of the braintrust that selected him - because it does not seem that Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen will be keeping their jobs if the season does not go well for the Giants.
And the reason that worries me for Dart in particular is because I think he needs time to develop before he’s put on an NFL field. The Lane Kiffin scheme is, well, a lot more simple than what Daboll is going to be running. If Russell Wilson and the New York Giants start with 3-4 straight losses, I could see the pivot to Dart happen relatively quickly.
For a lot of quarterbacks, it’s completely fine to be thrown into the fire, or a poor situation, as a rookie - Drake Maye made the most of it just last year. But he was also much further along in terms of understanding an NFL offense. I don’t know if Dart is, quite yet.
If that moment comes - it could be one of sinking or swimming - but I ultimately understand why the Giants took Dart with a first-round pick.
Expectation: 8 starts, 9 TD, 8 INT, 1500 passing yards
I think that Jaxson Dart is in line to start a good chunk of games in 2025. I’m not sure it will yield the results to keep Daboll and Schoen in charge of the Giants - but if Dart can just have 2-3 games late in the season to justify him being the unquestioned starter in 2026 - I think that will be a win.
Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans (Pick No. 1)
Cam Ward was the ultimate (and only) major quarterback prize in the 2025 NFL Draft. He performed incredibly well at Miami - ultimately finishing as a Heisman finalist (alongside Travis Hunter, Ashton Jeanty, and Dillon Gabriel).
The Titans, fortunate enough to be in a position to select Ward, did not hesitate to make him that pick - despite a reportedly large offer from the New York Giants. And Tennessee has done work this offseason in an effort to give Ward a solid infrastructure to work with, signing tackle Dan Moore and guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency, and drafting receivers Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor in the fourth round of April’s draft.
I think there is a real chance Ward will thrive as soon as his rookie year under head coach and play caller Brian Callahan. There were a lot of interesting, unique concepts that the Titans showed last year, but the inconsistency at the quarterback position really wrecked a lot of what Callahan tried to accomplish.
I do worry about the receiver room being pretty barren (despite the major investment in Calvin Ridley last offseason), as well as Tony Pollard being a year older, but I none of those questions have anything to do with Cam Ward’s game.
That said, I do think we will see just how high the ceiling is (or isn’t) based on the performances this year. The offensive line should be enough to get a baseline on what we can expect from Ward in the coming years - but the Titans should be optimistic in their future starter.
Expectation: 17 starts, 24 TD, 15 INT, ~4000 scrimmage yards
I think this would be a really positive stat line from Cam Ward’s rookie year. While it wouldn’t be setting the world on fire, it would establish Ward as someone on the come-up, a potential Pro Bowler and top-10 quarterback at his presumed peak. That, from a first overall pick, would be a really solid foundation. There will be ups and downs, of course, but there should be a ton of excitement in Nashville.