Kansas City Chiefs Offseason Progress Report

Is Kansas City's time in the sun over, or do they have enough left in the tank?

Chiefs Speedster Xavier Worthy

Overview

2024 Record: 15-2

General Manager: Brett Veach

Head Coach: Andy Reid

Starting Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes

Key Extensions:

LB Nick Bolton (3 years, $45 million, $30 million guaranteed), iOL Trey Smith (franchise tagged), EDGE George Karlaftis (4 years, $88 million, $61,778,566 guaranteed)

Key Additions:

CB Kristian Fulton, S Mike Edwards, DL Jerry Tillery, OT Jaylen Moore, OT Josh Simmons, DL Omarr Norman-Lott, EDGE Ashton Gillote, CB Nohl Williams

Key Departures:

iOL Joe Thuney, WR DeAndre Hopkins, S Justin Reid, DL Derrick Nnadi, DL Tershawn Wharton

Offense

Offensive Coordinator: Matt Nagy

2024 Ranks:

EPA/play: 11th Success Rate: 7th PPG: 15th (22.6ppg)

Projected Starting Offense (11 personnel):

QB Patrick Mahomes

RB Isaih Pacheco

WR Xavier Worthy

WR Rashee Rice

WR Hollywood Brown

TE Travis Kelce

LT Josh Simmons

LG Kingsley Suamataia

C Creed Humphrey

RG Trey Smith

RT Jawaan Taylor

Offense Notes:

For the first time in a long time, the vaunted Kansas City offense looked fallible in 2024. Yes, the team won 15 regular-season games. Yes, this is the team that employs Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. But, the 2024 Chiefs struggled mightily in areas where they have been close to the league leaders in. To this point, the Chiefs have only scored 30 or more points twice in the regular season: once in an overtime win, and once against the Carolina Panthers, who fielded the worst defense in NFL history.

Luckily, there are some key areas that seem to have seen upgrades in the offseason. The Chiefs doubled down on finally addressing the left tackle position. Receiver depth was added in the draft as well. But for every good replacement, there are still problems - potential Hall of Famer Joe Thuney was traded, Rashee Rice might not be 100% coming back from injury, and Travis Kelce is a shell of his former self. For this offense to be even as good as it was last year, they may need a herculean performance from Patrick Mahomes.

Defense

Defensive Coordinator: Steve Spagnuolo

2024 Ranks:

EPA/play: 18th Success Rate: 15th PPG: 4th (19.2ppg allowed)

Projected Starting Defense (Base 4-3):

DE George Karlaftis

DT Chris Jones

DT Mike Pennel

DE Mike Danna

LB Drue Tranquil

LB Nick Bolton

CB Jaylen Watson

CB Kristian Fulton

NB Trent McDuffie

S Bryan Cook

S Chamarri Conner

Defense Notes:

Kansas City's defense also seemed to take a step back. While Spags continued to be creative, deploying exotic pressures and coverages, this unit was still close to league average in a lot of efficiency metrics. Where this group shone was in defending the run, which helped in short-yardage situations and in the red zone. Still, this unit left much to be desired.

Like the offense, the Chiefs defense added some depth pieces, but also lost key players. A lot of the interior production is gone, now being relied upon by rookies and pieces that were previously rotation players. The secondary is also seeing new faces in Kristian Fulton and Nohl Williams. While I continue to have faith in Spagnuolo, this is not the juggernaut unit we are used to.

Outlook

Overall, for the first time in a long time, I'm actually concerned about the Chiefs. To some, this may sound like I'm saying that the sky is falling, and I should just have faith in Reid and Mahomes to get it done. The cracks are starting to form, however, and I think we should cast more doubt on this team than they normally receive.

Last year, ten of the Chiefs' fifteen wins were by one score or less, often requiring some very good luck to pull through. While this group did make it back to the Super Bowl for a third consecutive season, they were utterly embarrassed by a team that was better at every position than them (other than quarterback, but Hurts did outplay Mahomes in the game). With that bad taste in our mouths, are we supposed to just take the Chiefs and face value and say, "They'll be back, they always come back?"

I don't think so. This is, in my opinion, the first time in the Mahomes era that other teams should be the AFC favorites. That doesn't mean that the Chiefs will fall off the map in 2025; they still have core pieces and core coaches. However, if we're talking realistic expectations, the Chiefs shouldn't be expected to make it back to the Super Bowl this year. For most teams, winning the division and a deep playoff run sounds awesome, but for the Chiefs, this might be the regression they'll face in 2025.

Expectation/Goal for 2025: Win AFC West, Deep Playoff Run

2025 Schedule

\(\begin{array}{c c} \textbf{GameWeek} & \textbf{Opponent} \\ \hline \textbf{Week 1} & \textbf{@ Los Angeles Chargers, FNF, 8pm*} \\ \text{Week 2} & \text{vs. Philadelphia, 4:25pm} \\ \textbf{Week 3} & \textbf{@ New York Giants, SNF, 8:20pm} \\ \text{Week 4} & \text{vs. Baltimore, 4:25pm} \\ \textbf{Week 5} & \textbf{@ Jacksonville, MNF, 8:15pm} \\ \textbf{Week 6} & \textbf{vs. Detroit, SNF, 8:20pm} \\ \text{Week 7} & \text{vs. Las Vegas, 1pm} \\ \textbf{Week 8} & \textbf{vs. Washington, MNF, 8:15pm} \\ \text{Week 9} & \text{@ Buffalo, 4:25pm} \\ \text{Week 10} & \text{-- BYE WEEK --} \\ \text{Week 11} & \text{@ Denver, 4:25pm} \\ \text{Week 12} & \text{vs. Indianapolis, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 13} & \text{@ Dallas, 4:30pm**} \\ \textbf{Week 14} & \textbf{vs. Houston, SNF, 8:20pm} \\ \text{Week 15} & \text{vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 16} & \text{@ Tennessee, 1pm} \\ \textbf{Week 17} & \textbf{vs. Denver, TNF, 8:15pm} \\ \text{Week 18} & \text{@ Las Vegas, TBD} \\ \end{array} \)

Primetime games are BOLDED, all times EDT/EST

*Week 1 game @ Chargers is on Friday night in Brazil*

**Week 13 game @ Dallas is on Thanksgiving**