Houston Texans Offseason Progress Report

How good can this defense be? Will CJ Stroud bounce back?

Texans Star EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

Overview

2024 Record: 10-7

General Manager: Nick Caserio

Head Coach: DeMeco Ryans

Starting Quarterback: CJ Stroud

Key Extensions:

EDGE Danielle Hunter (1 year, 35.6 million, full guarantees), Derek Stingley Jr. (3 years, 90 million, 89 million guaranteed)

Key Additions:

WR Christian Kirk, OT Cam Robinson, DB CJ Gardner-Johnson, OT Trent Brown, WR Jayden Higgins, OT Aireontae Ersery, WR Jaylin Noel, DB Jaylin Smith

Key Departures:

OT Laremy Tunsil, WR Stefon Diggs, iOL Kenyon Green

Offense

Offensive Coordinator: Nick Caley

2024 Ranks:

EPA/play: 24th Success Rate: 31st PPG: 19th (21.9ppg)

Projected Starting Offense (11 personnel):

QB CJ Stroud

RB Joe Mixon

WR Nico Collins

WR John Metchie III

WR Christian Kirk

TE Dalton Schultz

LT Cam Robinson

LG Tytus Howard

C Jarrett Patterson

RG Juice Scruggs

RT Blake Fisher

Offense Notes:

After an excellent 2023 offense that helped propel the team to the playoffs, the Texans regressed heavily in 2024. The main culprit of the drastic step backwards was the offensive line - CJ Stroud was in duress often last year. While the line is mostly to blame, Stroud himself regressed even in the face of clean pockets. Between regression and injuries, the Texan's offense was a rough watch.

Hopefully 2025 can bring a positive change. Gone is offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and in his place enters Nick Caley, the next in line of the impressive Sean McVay tree. The Texans have also made a concerted effort to churn their offensive line, bringing in multiple backups in free agency and the draft to create competition. If more competition and stability can keep Stroud upright, the Texans can get back to being a top half of the league offense in 2025.

Defense

Defensive Coordinator: Matt Burke (DeMeco Ryans calls plays)

2024 Ranks:

EPA/play: 6th Success Rate: 4th PPG: 14th (21.9ppg allowed)

Projected Starting Defense (Base 4-2):

DE Will Anderson Jr.

DT Tim Settle Jr.

DT Folorunso Fatukasi

DE Danielle Hunter

LB Henry To'o To'o

LB Azeez Al-Shaair

CB Derek Stingley Jr.

CB Kamari Lassiter

NB Jalen Pitre

S Calen Bullock

S CJ Gardner-Johnson

Defense Notes:

While the offense disappointed, the Texans defense in 2024 continued to be the force that carried the team to victories. Will Anderson Jr. took the leap from his rookie season, adding 11 sacks and 16 TFLs. Danielle Hunter (now extended) also had an excellent season. Derek Stingley Jr. is now the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history. This team has no shortage of defensive stars.

2025 shouldn't be much different. Defense regression to the mean is something to expect year-to-year in the NFL, but the Texans have enough star power to stay inelastic to this trend. Continued growth from the aforementioned young stars, and adding another starter in the secondary with CJ Gardner-Johnson should lend this defense to being one of the most dominant units in the league.

Outlook

Overall, the Texans 2024 record doesn't reflect the quality of the team they put on the field. Yes, the team won 10 games and added a playoff win, but breaking down their season as a whole is less than inspiring. Of the Texans 6 games against playoff teams in the regular season, they only won against the Bills (where Sean McDermott blundered the clock). The playoff matchup against the Chargers was also a battle of stinkers, eventually having Justin Herbert lose the game for his team.

Despite the team's woes, especially on offense, the Texans still managed a playoff run, largely off the backs of the defense. Going into 2025, with an improved offense and stout defense, the expectation should be to have a better season. A 10-7 record and a playoff win may seem like high expectations for a regular team, but the Texans have the team to get it done.

The final piece of the puzzle lies with CJ Stroud. This was a player that was getting ordained as a multiple time MVP winner in the future. Once the surrounding infrastructure around him crumbled, Stroud followed suit, performing poorly even when he wasn't pressured. If Stroud can be more comfortable around a new supporting cast, the sky should be the limit for this team.

Expectation/Goal for 2025: Win AFC South, Deep Playoff Run

2025 Schedule

\(\begin{array}{c c} \textbf{GameWeek} & \textbf{Opponent} \\ \hline \text{Week 1} & \text{@ Los Angeles Rams, 4:25pm} \\ \textbf{Week 2} & \textbf{vs. Tampa Bay, MNF, 7pm} \\ \text{Week 3} & \text{@ Jacksonville, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 4} & \text{vs. Tennessee, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 5} & \text{@ Baltimore, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 6} & \text{-- BYE WEEK --} \\ \textbf{Week 7} & \textbf{@ Seattle, MNF, 10pm} \\ \text{Week 8} & \text{vs. San Francisco, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 9} & \text{vs. Denver, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 10} & \text{vs. Jacksonville, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 11} & \text{@ Tennessee, 1pm} \\ \textbf{Week 12} & \textbf{vs. Buffalo, TNF, 8:15pm} \\ \text{Week 13} & \text{@ Indianapolis, 1pm} \\ \textbf{Week 14} & \textbf{@ Kansas City, SNF, 8:20pm} \\ \text{Week 15} & \text{vs. Arizona, 1pm} \\ \text{Week 16} & \text{vs. Las Vegas, 4:25pm} \\ \text{Week 17} & \text{@ Los Angeles Chargers, TBD} \\ \text{Week 18} & \text{vs. Indianapolis, TBD} \\ \end{array} \)

Primetime games are BOLDED, all times EDT/EST