2026 NFL Draft: The Race for QB1
Which QBs have made a name for themselves in the 2026 NFL Draft?
We were promised a crazy slate of games in Week 5 of the College Football season. The schedule-makers did not disappoint. No. 8 Florida State lost in double overtime on Friday night to a resurgent Virginia program. No. 13 Ole Miss got the home win against No. 4 LSU. Perhaps the most consequential contests were the simultaneous home losses suffered by No. 3 Penn State to Oregon and No. 5 Georgia to the Crimson Tide.
The through line for most of these matchups, along with a few others, was quarterback play - several players continued to make their case as potential First-Round Selections in 2026. Last week, I gave a preview of some early positional Big Boards through the first month of the college football season. Among them was a rough list of ten quarterbacks who all had reasons to be listed as top draft prospects. Following last weekend, however, I believe we are closer to identifying the true difference-maker(s) at the position.
Throughout this article, we’ll take a deeper look at eight different quarterbacks who are eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft. While there can be only one player that becomes the first at his position taken, all of the quarterbacks we’ll take a look at have the tape, traits, or a combination of both to be worthy of consideration. As always, I have to mention that the season is still young; there is plenty of time for these players to improve their potential draft stock.
With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s try to make some headway in the quest for QB1.
John Mateer, Oklahoma
Week 5: Idle
2025 Stats (4 games): 95/141 (67.4%), 1215 Yds, 6TD, 3INT, 43 carries, 190 Rush Yds, 5 Rush TD
When Oklahoma lost most of their receivers and starting quarterback Jackson Arnold (now at Auburn) to the Transfer Portal this offseason, there were expectations of pretty significant regression, along with questions about whether or not Head Coach Brent Venables had what it took to revive his alma mater. Five weeks into the season, it’s like those concerns never existed - the defense is playing lights out, and new quarterback John Mateer has been everything Arnold was and much more.
In terms of traits, Mateer has what it takes to play in the big leagues. Early throughout the season, he has shown the ability to push the ball downfield, attempting layered throws against some difficult defenses. Perhaps the most impressive part of Mateer’s game through four contests has been the ability to move the ball effectively with his legs. Among all the quarterbacks mentioned in this article, Mateer is second in total rushing yards.* Oklahoma has been confident in calling designed runs for Mateer, and the QB has rewarded them with touchdowns and the ability to move the chains. Mateer also has shown a knack for escaping pressure with his legs, though I’d like to see quicker decisions to tuck and run in some instances.
One of the things I personally dislike when reading evaluations is the intangible “It Factor.” An attribute like this is very hard to quantify and is usually just applied to boost an evaluator’s personal preferences in prospects. That being said, I believe Mateer has a special propensity to make winning plays, especially when the team needs it. Whether it was converting key 3rd downs late against a tough Michigan defense, or scoring the game-winning rushing touchdown against Auburn late in the 4th quarter, Mateer might have ‘it.’
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*It’s worth noting that sacks in college football are recorded as losses to the quarterback’s rushing yard total, not passing yards
Ty Simpson, Alabama
Week 5: Won @ No. 5 Georgia, 24-21
2025 Stats (4 games): 88/127 (69.3%), 1138 Yds, 11TD, 0INT, 21 carries, 57 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD
Kalen DeBoer’s first season as the Head Coach of the Crimson Tide was marred by inconsistencies, especially in road games. After losing the first game of the season at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, many were saying that DeBoer and new starter Ty Simpson weren’t cut out for the pressure that comes with being at Alabama. Since that game, Ty Simpson has gone a long way towards silencing the doubters.
In all four games this season, Ty Simpson has been absolutely clinical. One of the more accurate quarterbacks in all of FBS, Simpson has diced up less impressive defenses (ULM, Wisconsin) and some of the best with the Georgia win last weekend. What impresses me about Simpson’s accuracy is that it spreads to all levels of the field. All three of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton have consistently gotten well-placed passes. I’ve been particularly impressed with Simpson’s ability to move defenders with his eyes - he routinely relocated the defensive backs of Georgia to create throwing lanes.
It’s one thing to be incredibly accurate against ULM and Wisconsin (where Simpson set Alabama completion percentage records), but the game against Georgia has shown that Simpson is capable of making NFL throws. Aside from making the tough throws, Simpson has also taken care of the ball at a high level - he’s thrown no interceptions through four games. If Simpson can continue to show off against SEC competition in the remainder of the season, not only will Alabama have a good chance to return to the College Football Playoff, but Simpson will hear his name called on Thursday next April.
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Dante Moore, Oregon
Week 5: Won @ No. 3 Penn State, 30-24 2OT
2025 Stats (5 games): 100/134 (74.6%), 1210 Yds, 14TD, 1INT, 24 carries, 122 Rush Yds, 0 Rush TD
Dante Moore’s journey started in 2023, when he was deployed as a true freshman starter for Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins. Kelly had reached the end of his rope at UCLA (he left to become Ohio State’s Offensive Coordinator the following season), and wasn’t able to help foster Moore’s growth at an effective level. Like Kelly, Moore departed for a Big 10 school in Oregon, where he would back up eventual NFL Draft Pick (and current Cleveland Browns starter) Dillon Gabriel.
Now, Dante Moore has the reins and has not disappointed through five weeks. Perhaps the most complete quarterback prospect, Moore has been effective and efficient in each game so far. Moore’s best performance to this point was the win in State College, Pennsylvania, this past weekend. Facing a strong defense, Moore started slow, but warmed up throughout the game, extending plays and making throws to force and eventually win in double overtime.
Moore’s fearlessness is probably my favorite quality he possesses. Often, when the first read is covered, Moore does a good job of extending plays via scrambling to throw. He doesn’t always bail and look to run immediately, but when he does, Moore can gain chunk yardage. It’s a shame that we won’t see many high-leverage games on Oregon’s regular season schedule this year. Hopefully, once Oregon makes it to the postseason, we’ll have the opportunity to see more magic against top-tier defenses.
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Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Week 5: Won @ Iowa, 20-15
2025 Stats (5 games): 89/122 (73%), 1208 Yds, 16TD, 1INT, 30 carries, 102 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD
Like many players in today’s college football, Mendoza’s story begins at another program. Similar to Moore, Mendoza was thrust into a starting role for the Cal Golden Bears in 2023, where he performed admirably. As a sophomore, Mendoza nearly doubled his freshman stats, putting his team on the map and even earning Cal their first-ever opportunity to host ESPN’s College GameDay. Mendoza would eventually transfer to Indiana, where he is off to a phenomenal start.
Through five games, Mendoza has already tied his total passing touchdown number for his sophomore season. The Hoosiers quarterback has been very tactile, hitting layered throws and hole shots with incredible accuracy. To me, Mendoza’s best performance came last weekend against the Iowa Hawkeyes. This was the first time Mendoza faced a (healthy) good defense, and apart from a few lulls, he delivered high-caliber throws down the field.
My favorite part of Mendoza’s game so far has been his confident arrogance in the throws he attempts. Whether it’s been layered throws (over the linebackers and under the safety/star defender), tight sideline throws, or just contested throws in general, Mendoza has shown little to no fear, asserting that he will place the ball where no defenders can make plays. People have had early knocks on Mendoza as being more of a ‘system manager’ than a true elevator, but system managers in today’s NFL are more than capable of winning big-time games. If Mendoza can display his ability to make defenders look silly in later contests, there’s a good chance he could hear his name called first overall (not dissimilar to another former Cal QB).
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LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Week 5: Won vs. Kentucky, 35-13
2025 Stats (5 games): 58/87 (66.7%), 886 Yds, 4TD, 1INT, 48 carries, 98 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD
One of the surprising teams of the 2024 season was the South Carolina Gamecocks. Behind a vicious defense, the Gamecocks earned a 9-4 record, the team’s best since 2017. While the defense was the main focus of this group, redshirt freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers had the offense humming as well.
Coming into 2025, Sellers has had high expectations to continue to improve. So far, it’s been a bit up and down, interrupted by an early concussion. However, the strides that Sellers needed to take have already begun to form. To start, Sellers has all the traits you could want when it comes to athleticism. He’s 6’3, close to 240 lbs, and has a bazooka for an arm. The physical traits are reminiscent of other high picks like Cam Newton, Josh Allen, or Daniel Jones. In addition to already being NFL-sized, Sellers has gotten much better at the mental and feel aspects of the position, avoiding pressure and finding the open plays.
While Sellers has taken strides, he still has a ways to go in this department. Every incredible play you see Sellers make is often offset by a negative play preceding or following the good stuff. This is most apparent in the two ranked opponents SC has faced so far. With a gauntlet of strong opponents incoming, Sellers will have the chance to continue to improve his pocket presence and movement. If Sellers continues to grow in the pocket, it will be very difficult to keep him out of the QB1 discussion.
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Drew Allar, Penn State
Week 5: Lost vs. No. 6 Oregon, 24-30 2OT
2025 Stats (4 games): 71/113 (62.8%), 736 Yds, 6TD, 2INT, 19 carries, 69 Rush Yds
Since taking over for Sean Clifford, Drew Allar has been viewed among some as the heir apparent to the QB1 discussion. Despite a rocky 2024, where Allar displayed some good highs but questionable lows, the Penn State quarterback decided to return for his senior season. With an underwhelming start to the 2025 season, Allar will have to step up his play to get back into the realm of QB1 talk.
Despite the strong arm and ability to extend plays with his legs, Allar hasn’t been an elevator for the Nittany Lions offense thus far. In the three games preceding the Oregon matchup (Nevada, FIU, and Villanova), Allar combined for 4 passing touchdowns and 27 total rushing yards. The start of the Oregon game wasn’t much better, but toward the end, Allar showed flashes of what made him a covetable prospect. The strong arm found the endzone twice, but ultimately, Allar’s overtime interception sealed the fate of his team. If we can get more of the good, Allar is enticing. Otherwise, he may continue to slide down draft boards.
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Carson Beck, Miami
Week 5: Idle
2025 Stats (4 games): 82/112 (73.2%), 972 Yds, 7TD, 3INT, 10 carries, 19 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD
Maybe it was just wanting new scenery, or maybe it was the hope of following the same path as this past year’s No. 1 Overall Pick, or perhaps it was a combination of the two. Regardless, tenured Georgia quarterback Carson Beck flipped from the Dawgs to Miami this offseason, hoping to improve his draft stock. Through four contests, Beck has been pretty accurate and decisive, giving us some big-time throws against decent defensive backfields.
What’s impressed me the most about this iteration of Beck is his decisiveness; it seems like he’s quicker at making decisions than he was in Athens. His accuracy has also impressed. The downfield passing game is a new element that Beck has excelled at. Despite the precision Beck has displayed, Beck has also looked limited in terms of high-volume downfield passing. The arm doesn’t look weak, necessarily, but it is far from the strongest out of the prospects we’ve talked about. While I personally don’t believe Beck will push for QB1, he has the infrastructure around to be able to impress in a potential postseason run.
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Trinidad Chambliss, Mississippi
Week 5: Won vs. No. 13 LSU, 24-19
2025 Stats (5 games): 65/101 (64.4%), 1033 Yds, 5TD, 1INT, 50 carries, 266 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD
The biggest revelation in the quarterback discussion this season has to be Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss. Chambliss started his collegiate career at Division II Ferris State, where he would lead the school to a Division II Championship in just his second season as a starter. After an injury to Ole Miss starting QB Austin Simmons in Week 2, Chambliss has taken over and hasn’t looked back, leading Ole Miss to an undefeated record, including a home win against LSU.
While Chambliss hasn’t found the endzone too many times, he has been effective at moving the ball downfield consistently. Operating Lane Kiffin’s offense at a high level, Chambliss has thrived in pushing passes over the middle of the field. Chambliss’ ability to scramble and pick up yards with his legs also helps to move the chains; he’s a true dual-threat quarterback. It’s only been 4 contests, but Chambliss’ record as a national champion at Ferris State, and his nerve in facing high-level SEC opponents, indicate that he can hang with the rest of the QBs on this list. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Chambliss climb up the draft board if he continues to grow as a deep ball passer against some of the country’s best defenses later in the season.
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